Indonesia have a European-heavy squad and PSSI's title dream, but names are not tactics

Last night, the editorial desk sent me a link from VIVA and TheThao247. The headline talked about a new Indonesia era, with a squad full of European-based players, and PSSI publicly targeting the title. I opened the article, read the names Kevin Diks, Justin Hubner, Elkan Baggott, and stopped. Because I remembered 2026, when I wrote that Mbappé was a system product. That article had 2.3 million reads, sparked three weeks of debate, and I used all my confidence to defend it. Then in Moscow 2026, watching that boy lift the trophy, I cried in the middle of a sea of French flags and hugged a stranger Croatian journalist. Since then, I have learned that a list of names is never evidence of tactics.

The VIVA article paints a picture any Indonesian fan wants to believe. Indonesia are in Group A with Malaysia, Singapore and Bangladesh. All group matches will be played at Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno, Jakarta, on September 25, September 28 and October 1. Captain Jay Idzes is absent because of an injury in Serie A. The defence includes Kevin Diks, Justin Hubner, Elkan Baggott, Rizky Ridho, Jordi Amat and Calvin Verdonk. The new coach is said to be John Herdman, though I have not seen PSSI confirm it. The article also stresses that the tournament is on the FIFA calendar, helping Indonesia call up players based in Europe.

First, the competition name. FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026 is not a common name. The regional national-team competition in Southeast Asia is usually called ASEAN Championship, or AFF Cup. If the article uses an unofficial name, I do not know whether European clubs are obliged to release players. The FIFA calendar is what matters. If the competition is not on it, Diks or Hubner may be kept by their clubs. A strong team on paper can become a depleted team as soon as the squad is announced.

Second, the group. Bangladesh are not an ASEAN member. That makes me wonder whether the article mixed information from different competitions. If Group A really includes Bangladesh, then I need an explanation of the format. If not, the whole article needs to be re-read.

Third, the head coach. John Herdman has ties to Canada women's football and New Zealand men's team. I have not seen PSSI confirm him as Indonesia coach. Maybe it is breaking news, maybe it is an aggregation error. A tactical analysis cannot stand on an unverified name.

Leaving those three problems aside, I come to the football story. Indonesia have an unusual squad, in a positive sense. A Southeast Asian country with this many European-based players is something new. Kevin Diks plays for Copenhagen, Justin Hubner is with Wolves, Elkan Baggott has spent seasons in England. Jordi Amat has La Liga in his past. Calvin Verdonk grew up in the Netherlands. Compared with the ASEAN average, this is a huge resource.

But a huge resource is not yet tactics. A team is built with names, but tactics must be built with ideas. I need to know who advances the ball, who leads the pressing, who passes in the final third. The article does not say that. There is no xG, no PPDA, no number of touches in the opponent's box. I only have a list of names.

I remember the 2026 World Cup final. Before the match, my models said France would win, but I did not really understand why. I just saw Mbappé run, and when he ran, Croatia's defence broke apart like paper. Only during the pandemic podcast, when Jérémy Toulalan and I reviewed the footage, did I see the variable I missed: a sprint speed of 38 km/h and a 6.2-metre acceleration burst. Since then, I have never analysed a team without looking at dynamic data, the movements off the ball.

With Indonesia, dynamic data are missing. I do not know how high Diks can push up when the opponent sits deep. I do not know whether Hubner has enough pace to stop Malaysia's counter-attacks. I do not know whether the midfield can keep the ball under pressure. These questions need pictures, match footage, a friendly to answer. A list of 23 does not answer them.

Let me be clear: I do not doubt the individual quality of Indonesia's players. Kevin Diks has played in Serie A and now features for Copenhagen. Justin Hubner has played for Wolves' U21 side and knows the feel of English football. Elkan Baggott has height and good aerial strength. Rizky Ridho is a domestically developed centre-back with international experience. Jordi Amat has touched La Liga football. Calvin Verdonk came from Ajax's academy. Placed next to other ASEAN teams, this is a luxury group of players.

But football is not a game of writing names on paper. I have watched many Indonesia matches in recent AFF Cups. I see flashes of brilliance, but I also see the same script: a team dominating, creating chances, then losing focus from a set piece and paying the price. This time the squad is deeper, but the mental problem may remain. When you are expected to win, conceding first in the 20th minute can break the whole collective.

SUGBK is one of the loudest stadiums in Southeast Asia. I have stood in a stadium full of Indonesia supporters, and I understand how the away team can be swallowed. But I also know that home soil is a double-edged sword. When a team is expected to win, every sideways pass can be whistled. When PSSI publicly target the title, a draw with Malaysia in the group stage can become a wound. Southeast Asian football is full of teams that died under expectation.

The article mentions the official list of 23 players at the end. I am curious about its structure. If Indonesia bring four centre-backs and three full-backs, which midfield or attacking spot will they sacrifice? An unbalanced squad can destroy any tactical plan, no matter how many stars are named. I need to see the list, and then I need to see how the coach rotates. The article does not give me that.

But I could be wrong. I was wrong about Mbappé, so I will not rush to be right about Indonesia. Malaysia have Johor Darul Ta'zim as their core and some naturalized players, but not European depth. Singapore are rebuilding. Bangladesh, if they really are in the group, remain a quality question. Against these opponents, Indonesia can win with physicality, bench depth, and players who know how to operate in tight spaces. Five substitutes help them even more. From the 70th minute onwards, Indonesia can bring on names their rivals do not have.

Emotion is not the enemy of reason; it is a silent analyst. I have a feeling Indonesia are truly at a new threshold. But a new threshold does not mean the cup is already in their hands. Football is a game of margins. One individual error, one injury, one Jakarta rainstorm can change everything.

On September 28, Indonesia face Malaysia at SUGBK. That is the match I most want to see. If Indonesia control the game with clear ideas and a consistent pressing rhythm, I will write an apology column. If they win through individual moments, I will still rate them highly, but I will not call them title favourites. We need a match, not a squad list.

The pandemic podcast taught me that silence is also a form of interview. Now is the time for Indonesia to be silent and take the pitch. I will stay here, open my laptop, and prepare an apology addressed to Diks, Hubner and the whole team. But before the ball rolls, I keep a healthy doubt. Because every time I say this team will win the title before seeing them play, football finds a way to prove I am a fool.